[SMM Chrome Daily Review] Zimbabwe's New Chrome Ore Export Policy Boosts Market Sentiment with Strong Upward Momentum

On January 8, 2026, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,150-8,250 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,300-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quotation for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, the quotation for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,200-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the quotation for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, the ferrochrome market continued its positive trend, with retail quotations rising further. Tight supply coupled with rising ore prices pushing up costs provided a floor for ferrochrome prices. The market is currently watching whether the downstream stainless steel market can sustain its recent upward trend. On the long-term contract front, the rebound in stainless steel production schedules and high ferrochrome production kept the overall supply and demand in a tight balance. The market holds some optimistic expectations for the direction of next month's steel mill tenders. The ferrochrome market is expected to hold up well in the short term.

Raw material side, on January 8, 2026, the spot quotation for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 53-53.5 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% South African raw ore, it was 48-50 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was 54-55 yuan/mtu; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore, it was 55-56 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore, it was 60-61 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate, it was 62.5-63.5 yuan/mtu, up 0.5-1 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. For futures, the quotation for 40-42% South African fines was $268-270/mt, up $5/mt MoM.

During the day, market sentiment in the chrome ore market strengthened, with quotations rising to varying degrees. Zimbabwe amended its VAT law, imposing an additional 10% export tax on unprocessed chrome ore on top of the existing basis. This policy adjustment increased the export cost of Zimbabwean chrome ore, prompting domestic traders to hold prices firm. For lump ore, tight supply of mainstream lump ore supported the rise in quotations. Furthermore, with the approach of winter stockpiling in January, some ferrochrome producers began inquiries and purchases, with demand driving up traders' positive expectations. For futures, the latest transaction price for 40-42% South African fines futures was $268/mt. However, as overseas miners gradually increased their control, it became more difficult for traders to make purchases, somewhat affecting the actual transaction volume of chrome ore futures. Overall, under the dual influence of increasing demand and futures support, the short-term positive trend in the chrome ore market is evident, but the transmission of downstream positive effects still requires continuous monitoring.